Does Ursula von der Leyen want to remain in Brussels' top job for another five-year term? Her big speech on Wednesday probably won't answer the question, but will be scoured for clues.
Von der Leyen's final State of the Union address of her first term as European Commission president will outline priorities after a series of crises, a pandemic and a war in Europe.
It will also set the stage for nine months of political manoeuvring to reshuffle the most important European leadership posts and set the continent's agenda for rest of the decade.
In June, more than 400 million Europeans will be invited to vote to choose the make-up of the European Parliament.
This in turn will open a sort of transfer window during which member state governments, political blocs and ambitious politicians haggle to share out European leadership jobs.
Von der Leyen or her successor will choose a new 27-strong commission, but the horse-trading will also see trade-offs for several more posts at institutions and agencies, including the European Central Bank.
So is the State of the Union speech, given on Wednesday before the European Parliament in Strasbourg, the launch of a campaign to stay in office or just a moment to polish a legacy before retirement?
Von der Leyen's spokesman Eric Mamer isn't giving anything away. "She has the firm intention to work until the final day to have the maximum impact," he told AFP.
Opinion in Brussels gatherings seems to be shifting towards an expectation that von der Leyen will want to stay in office -- and that major EU member states will back her to do so.
A former German defence minister, the centre-right medical academic took charge of the EU executive in late 2019, nominated by EU capitals and approved in a vote by MEPs.
She faced two major crises in rapid succession: the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of EU ally Ukraine, with both complicated by the bloc's existing struggle to slow climate change.
She oversaw an EU joint vaccination purchasing strategy and post-Covid recovery plan, the bloc's economic support for Kyiv and an ambitious effort to dump its energy dependence on Russia.
And amid all that her commission got a start on the vast legislative agenda behind the Green Deal, Europe's drive to become a carbon neutral economy with an independent industrial base.
There is a fair amount of unfinished business, and von der Leyen's own conservative EPP bloc has turned against elements of her environmental strategy, but the plan remains on track.
Right-wing and populist parties are trying to ride a rural backlash against Brussels' green regulations -- perhaps explaining why von der Leyen has taken against the wolf.
In her first policy announcement after the summer break, she promised to review EU laws protecting the once endangered animal from farmers and hunters.
Some amused observers pointed to von der Leyen's personal stake in the issue: a wolf broke into a paddock at her family estate last year and killed a beloved 30-year-old pony.
But most saw it as a gesture to opponents of stricter nature protection rules -- and a sign that she is reassuring her right-wing bloc before launching a bid to stay on.
At the same time, the commission has led a major effort to regulate US and Chinese internet giants to protect users' data and fight hate speech and disinformation.
Other dossiers have not advanced, most notoriously the effort to reform EU migration rules and better share the responsibility for screening and housing asylum seekers.
Nevertheless, for observers like Thierry Chopin of the Institute Jacques Delors think tank, von der Leyen's record over the first four years "is far from bad".
"This has become a much more geopolitical commission, and that was a promise the president made," he added, using Brussels jargon for the EU taking more of a role in areas once led by member state capitals.
German MEP Andreas Schwab, a member of von der Leyen's CDU party, said he hoped Wednesday's address would be a "message of encouragement" for Europeans after the EU negotiated so many crises.
"But at the same time she'll take note of the current mood among citizens that there's too much European bureaucracy and too fast a rhythm of new regulations," he suggested.
This would also please the decision-makers in the succession battle ahead: several EU governments, fearing the challenge of the populist right, have called for a "pause" in environmental regulation.
In 2019, von der Leyen was parachuted into Brussels by French President Emmanuel Macron to head off a bid for the top job by German MEP Manfred Weber, the EPP group's leader in parliament.
So could von der Leyen be the official EPP candidate this time round? Maybe, but she can't jump too soon.
"She has to stay neutral until the end of April, so she can continue to carry out her responsibilities. After that, she can campaign," Schwab explained.
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