Between Washington and Beijing: is Europe the big loser in Trump’s return?

The numerous demands of the new Trump administration – increased military spending, imports of American products, territorial ambitions in Greenland – are forcing Europeans to make a choice: align themselves with Washington or focus on their own strategic autonomy.

1. The United States softens its tone towards Beijing

After making thunderous announcements during his campaign, President Trump has significantly softened his position. A ‘very good’ exchange with Xi Jinping even before his inauguration reveals the short-term concerns of both men: rebalancing the trade balance and stopping fentanyl exports to the United States for one; maintaining TikTok and US non-intervention in Taiwan for the other. This stance of pragmatic pragmatism is reawakening fears among some of a ‘Chimerica’ agreement between Washington and Beijing at the expense of other powers, notably Europe.

1. Sino-American pragmatism that does not erase strategic rivalry

Nevertheless, the underlying trend should not be underestimated: by appointing Marco Rubio, one of the most hostile hawks towards Beijing (to the point of having been banned from Chinese territory), as head of American diplomacy, Donald Trump is signalling his intention to contain China.

On the trade front, Donald Trump, who once said that ‘tariff’ was ‘the best word in the dictionary’, has announced a 10% tax on all Chinese imports. Faced with this protectionism, and arguing that European products are also targeted by the Trump administration, Beijing will be willing to pay dearly to maintain strong trade links with Europe in order to continue exporting its overcapacity. This American offensive therefore gives the EU a card to play in its negotiations with China.

On the technological front, rivalry with Beijing is pushing Washington to pursue decoupling and threaten to sanction any deepened cooperation between the EU and China in sensitive areas: 5G, AI, semiconductors.

Aligning itself would further anchor European industry in the American orbit, at the risk of limiting innovation partnerships with China. Conversely, refusing to go along with this hardening stance would inevitably lead to friction with the White House, while encouraging Beijing to turn to the rest of the world.

1. Europe at a crossroads

Currently a mere spectator to the parade of announcements, the dilemma facing the EU is clear: follow the American line of technological and then economic decoupling from China, which has become a ‘systemic rival’, or maintain a form of strategic autonomy by preserving a certain degree of cooperation with Beijing.

Voices such as that of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk are already being raised in favour of accepting increased European military spending. Satisfying Washington is one thing, but building a powerful Europe that is once again an ally and not a vassal of the Americans is another. Our priority is not to increase budgets but to coordinate these efforts at the continental level in order to achieve economies of scale and support European industry.

While China stands ready to respond to US measures, it is not inevitable that the EU will be the big loser in the new order. With greater solidarity, it can still assert itself as a true geopolitical player.