Now or Never

We still have a chance to resolve the current problems in Europe. Through their meeting in Berlin, Merkel and Macron can provide the necessary impetus, as well as at the European summit at the end of June, to ensure that this difficult legislative period ends well before next year’s elections. (…) Two years is an eternity today, and who knows what Europe will look like in 2020. I say two years because 2019 will be the year of the great European earthquake. Everything will change, all at once and with an intensity never seen before. For the first time, all the key positions at the head of the European institutions will be renewed simultaneously, from the Commission to the European Central Bank, from the Council to the European Parliament.

This has never happened before, as appointments to the ECB always take place on a different date. In addition, we will have at least four new leaders, as Juncker is no longer a candidate and the terms of the other leaders are coming to an end. These simultaneous changes are not good news. There is a risk that the ECB will be thrown into the political cauldron, with haggling over nationalities and political affiliations. That is why the first task of the summit in Berlin is for each side to understand that the procedure for electing Draghi’s successor must be independent of the scramble to fill the other posts.

A second reason, which may make 2019 an explosive year, is the possible earthquake that will shake the European Parliament. Forty years after the first direct elections and with the power conferred on it by Maastricht, the Parliament presents a radical change compared to previous legislatures, which were characterised by great continuity. What was special about them?

The European Parliament has functioned every year in the German style, with a grand coalition between the two major political forces, the EPP and S&D, which were built by the two historic political parties, the CDU and SPD. All the presidents of the Commission, Parliament and Council came from this grand coalition.

This balance will be broken by the upcoming European elections. Every sign points to a turning point: the arrival and establishment of new parties that are against “the system”, followed by the role that Emmanuel Macron’s party will play and the repercussions of Brexit. This will surely lead to more fragmentation and make it more difficult to find consensus in the future.

When we look back in 2020, we will regret our era, because we could have taken a political step forward with a little courage and prevented problems from arising. We must therefore plan with foresight now.

If no reforms are prepared for Europe, I do not see how we can achieve significant progress in two years in a situation that is both complex and fragmented. If a monetary fund is not established now, when it could intervene in this internal crisis in Europe, what political forces will be able to establish it in two years? If economic and monetary union is not completed now, there is little hope that it will evolve over time.

If, now that Trump has destroyed the G7 and undermined the Atlantic Alliance, the common defence and security policy does not get off the ground, it will never be reliable, as there will never be sufficient reason to pursue it. If no effective measures are found in unison to end the migrant crisis, it is doubtful that Europe will be able to resist or even continue to exist in the years to come. The Franco-German summit in Berlin seems to us to be a decisive moment, an opportunity to be seized. After that, I fear it will be too late. The political change of 2019, whatever direction it takes, will have repercussions on the functioning of the European institutions for years to come.