Europeans, America and Ukraine

While Europe takes its time to put its new team in place, the world continues to go downhill. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict threatens to set the Middle East ablaze and is already destroying thousands of civilian lives in Gaza and Lebanon. Air manoeuvres are intensifying around Taiwan. Russia is nibbling away at Ukrainian territory. But the EU remains in ‘strategic wait-and-see’ mode: it is waiting for the end of its internal processes for approving commissioners; above all, it is waiting for the outcome of the US elections. The last European Council meeting on 18 October did not even include the future of transatlantic relations on its agenda. The whole world is wondering what the outcome of the US elections will be and how to prepare for it, but the EU is not developing any of the strategies needed in the event of a victory by one or the other.

Such a lack of reflection is staggering: the heads of state and government apparently have nothing to say to each other about the future of US politics. This subject has always been a big taboo in the EU, as if thinking together, among Europeans, about developments in America were already a sign of guilty emancipation. Even at a time when everyone is waxing lyrical about strategic autonomy, making the United States one of the subjects, among others, of the Union’s foreign policy is taboo.
So it is the hope of a Democratic victory that takes the place of policy. There is no doubt that a Trump victory would be catastrophic, and not only for the EU. But let us not forget that in terms of unpredictability and neglect towards Europeans, Joe Biden has been just as bad as his predecessor. It was he who decided to withdraw troops from Afghanistan without warning his allies; who signed a new military alliance, AUKUS, with Australia and New Zealand, again without warning; and whose latest IRA law, intended to protect American companies, has been seen as a full-scale attack on European industries.

Ukraine is high on the list of potential victims of the US elections. A certain weariness is already noticeable on both sides of the Atlantic. President Zelensky has sensed this, which is why he has come up with his ‘victory plan’, which he hopes to see completed by 2025. But this ‘Ukraine fatigue’ will not have the same consequences with either of the American candidates: Kamala Harris stammers politically correct platitudes and seeks to reassure on the maintenance of American assistance; Donald Trump has warned that he could solve the problem in 24 hours, without knowing what concessions he would be prepared to make to Vladimir Putin. As for the future of NATO, there are significant differences between the two candidates, casting devastating doubts on the defence of Europe, as well as on the fate of Ukraine.

So what will Europeans do? Do they have two strategies ready to go, in case either candidate wins? Have they thought about Ukraine joining NATO? About the security guarantees that could be given to it? Do they maintain that ‘what Ukraine wants, the EU will want too’? No one knows. It is imperative that France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Poland convene an informal dinner followed by a special summit on the future of Euro-American relations.