Nguyen PV., Defard C. & Breucker F. 2023. «Gas supply security in Europe», Policy paper, Paris: Jacques Delors Institute, June.
It was possible to get through the winter of 2022/2023 primarily thanks to a set of cyclical factors such as emergency European regulations, a shift to liquefied natural gas, mild temperatures and demand reduction. However, such a strategy cannot be banked on ahead of next winter as it has geopolitical, economic, environmental and social limitations. In this situation, a structural reduction in gas demand, which will entail an acceleration of the energy transition, is emerging as the only viable option to strengthen short-term supply security while respecting our long-term climate targets.
Will the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 be a major turning point in the history of the European energy transition? Beginning in the spring of 2021, the reduction of gas flows from Russia accelerated following the war in Ukraine as twelve Member States were subjected to a partial or total interruption of their supply of gas from Russia. Russian pipeline gas now only accounts for 6 to 7% of the EU’s supply, compared to roughly 40% previously.
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