Relearning the Language of Power : Geopolitical coalitions and pooled geoeconomic deterrence as Europe’s plan B for a post-WTO world

This report shows that Europe is controlling several critical chokepoints in global value chains that can be deployed as geoeconomic deterrence vis-à-vis the US and China.

If combined with an offer to cooperate on the development of future markets and decarbonisation, Europe can lead the establishment of geopolitical middlepower coalitions as a blueprint for a global order following the WTO.

As the United States, Russia, and China increasingly converge on a world divided into spheres of influence, Europe has no credible Plan B for an international order in which the US is no longer the ultimate guarantor of stability.

Instead, Europe is increasingly pushed into an order defined by others. The United States routinely deploys its economic and security leverage to extract concessions from Europe, while China has built structural power through critical supply chokepoints, from rare earths to chips.

Europe’s recent success in defending the territorial integrity of Greenland should not obscure that European leaders have repeatedly confused sovereignty with geopolitical power. De-risking and resilience may preserve freedom of action, but they do not translate into power understood as the ability to shape the behaviour of others in line with Europe’s interests and in defence of global cooperation.

Contrary to widespread perceptions, Europe does possess significant tools of power. Based on a novel analysis of trade data, this report identifies 41 critical chokepoints where China depends on the EU for more than 80 per cent of its imports, and 67 such dependencies for the United States. These span essential inputs including insulin, pharmaceutical intermediates, medical technologies, and specialised machinery for agriculture, paper production, and industrial processing. These dependencies are not easily or quickly substitutable and therefore constitute deployable instruments of statecraft.