FR] A Pyrrhic victory for the ‘illiberals’ paves the way for Poland’s renewed European engagement

Jarosław Kaczyński’s Law and Justice Party (PiS) has achieved the feat of winning the parliamentary elections for the third time in a row, but finds itself without allies that would enable it to form a viable coalition government. Conversely, although Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO) only came in second, it should have no trouble forming an alliance with two other parties, Third Way (TD) and New Left (NL), which share its desire to remove PiS from power. Together, these three political forces have a comfortable majority in the Sejm and an overwhelming majority in the Senate.

However, the new majority’s room for manoeuvre will be limited by the PiS’s continuing hold on certain countervailing powers and by the significant influence that Jarosław Kaczyński’s party still wields in the country, while the new coalition will have to prove that it is capable of overcoming its relative political heterogeneity.

The PiS is paying dearly for its radical and aggressive strategy. The very high voter turnout, which resulted in record participation, benefited the opposition. The Polish parliamentary elections confirm the relative stability of the Polish political scene, while reflecting a number of notable developments. They highlight some parallels with developments observed in other Central European countries, while also revealing specific characteristics – particularly in relation to Hungary, with which Poland has often been associated over the past eight years.
The next government should be able to pull Poland out of its standoff with the European Union and re-engage the country in a positive European dynamic which, in stark contrast to the PiS’s desire for a radical reconfiguration of the European project, will translate into a constructive stance. The Polish parliamentary elections on 15 October 2023 thus mark a major setback for the ‘illiberal’ camp in Europe and show that democratic erosion remains a reversible process.