Following the elections on 30 September, Slovakia could see Robert Fico return to power after a defeat in 2020 against a backdrop of accusations of corruption and even criminal conspiracy, and following a civil society mobilisation on an unprecedented scale in 1989, calling for a “clean” policy and a pro-European impetus that contrasted with the dominant political atmosphere within the “Visegrad group”. His SMER-SD party (officially social-democratic, but increasingly similar in many respects to the Polish PiS or the Hungarian Fidesz) won with around 23% of the vote, ahead of the liberal Progressive Slovakia (PS), which came second with almost 18%.

In Poland, voters are due to renew their representatives on 15 October. The PiS party, in power since 2015, is gambling its chance of staying in power for a 3rd consecutive term. Losing ground, the PiS is trying to maximise its chances by adding four referendums to the ballot, tailor-made to mobilise its electorate and hamper the opposition: on the sale of state assets to foreign entities, on the retirement age, on the border with Belarus and on procedures for relocating migrants. The PiS is leading the polls, but not by enough to win an absolute majority, so the crucial question will be what alliances can be forged within the Sejm, with a number of parties that are not sure of passing the threshold needed for parliamentary representation.
What impact will these two elections have on the Visegrad group and the European Union? What effects can we expect for key European issues, such as support for Ukraine? Do these two elections set the tone for the political sequence that will culminate in the European elections in June 2024?

We are delighted to welcome Lukas Macek, head of the Centre Grande Europe.