While Emmanuel Macron described NATO as experiencing “brain death” in November 2019, the war in Ukraine, the gradual retrenchment of the United States, and growing global instability have fundamentally reshaped the strategic landscape, compelling Europeans to take greater responsibility for their own defence—both within NATO and through a stronger role for the European Union. This shift is reflected in initiatives such as the ReArm Europe plan, the European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP), and the SAFE loan instrument, which can provide up to €150 billion in financing.

Donald Trump’s return to the White House has added a further layer of uncertainty. During his first term, he had already shaken the Alliance by questioning the United States’ commitment to NATO. His return has been accompanied by ambiguous statements regarding Article 5 and renewed demands that European allies increase their defence spending to 5% of GDP. For Europeans, the challenge is now to turn this pressure into an opportunity to build a genuinely integrated European defence industry.

This EuroQuestions will look back at the NATO Summit to be held in Ankara on 7–8 July 2026 and examine the lessons Europeans can draw from it. In particular, it will explore how the United States is positioning itself amid the current wartime environment, whether European unity can withstand internal divisions, how EU–NATO relations are evolving, and whether Europeans are capable of developing a truly integrated European defence market.

Nicole Gnesotto is Vice-President of the Jacques Delors Institute and a specialist in European affairs, international security, and defence. She previously served as Director of the European Union Institute for Security Studies (2001–2007), following several positions within the French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs and the European institutions. She is currently Professor Emerita at the Conservatoire national des arts et métiers (CNAM).