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Matelly, S. “A deafening silence…”, Newsletter, Jacques Delors Institute, May 2025

It has now been over 100 days since the new President of the United States took office. And it would be an understatement to say that he has dominated the media and beyond. In his speech marking his first 100 days in office last week, however, he explained that we have not seen anything yet. Is this a bluff? A strategy of intimidation or blackmail?

In their initial assessments of his first three months in office, many have pointed to the inconsistencies in Donald Trump’s policy choices, looking for signs of cracks or divisions within his team or a change of direction. Admittedly, the financial markets were quick to respond with economic sanctions, even if these sanctions are in fact more a reflection of the uncertainty surrounding his constant U-turns. And with the markets adapting very quickly, these sanctions may only be temporary.

Furthermore, this punishment by the financial markets seems insignificant compared to the scale of the challenges that the new US president has brought upon himself in such a short time. Admittedly, the polls are beginning to reverse in the United States, but they estimate that 40% of American citizens still have a favourable opinion of the president (39% in the Washington Post/ABC News poll, 42% in the New York Times poll and 40% in the Pew Research Center poll).

However, last week’s announcement by the International Monetary Fund of a decline in US GDP is probably more worrying because it is more structural. It should be remembered that less than six months earlier, the same IMF had highlighted the US economy’s solid growth (which it estimated at 2.8% in 2024), the slowdown in inflation and full employment. The intensification of trade tensions and the unprecedented level of uncertainty are likely to weigh on the global economy for some time to come, but beyond that, the first 100 days have been destabilising well beyond the United States. China, which was spared for a few weeks, has found itself virtually under a trade embargo by the US administration. And it was the only country to resist (along with Canada, which clearly punished the US in its recent elections), for obvious historical reasons, prompting the US administration to raise the stakes. Through their caution, the Europeans have avoided not only escalation but also the worst in this trade war, but can we be satisfied with that?

In 100 days, Donald Trump has not just made a lot of noise, he has imposed a new logic in all areas, and the fact that he has finally moderated his trade war or has not yet annexed Canada or Greenland poorly masks the changes that have taken place in a matter of days all over the world, and I would be tempted to say even in Europe. Reactionary ideas are gaining ground every day with less and less restraint, international law is becoming a distant memory (the Paris Agreement, the Oslo and Ottawa Conventions), and the struggles of yesteryear against racism, sexism, violence against children and to save the planet are being mocked. Where have the progressives, the countervailing powers, the dissenting voices and the resistance gone? Where are the reasonable people? These are the questions we are all asking ourselves as we look at the United States and the world over the last 100 days. But can we not ask ourselves the same question in Europe when we see the dangerous spread of these reactionary ideas?

“I repeat my deep conviction: we have a duty to extend our values of peace and mutual understanding to all Europeans,” said Jacques Delors in a speech to the European Parliament in Strasbourg on 26 May 1993.

It is inspired by this conviction that we have continued our work in April with the publication of a study by Thibaud Voïta, Building decarbonization and affordable housing: promoting local skills and accelerating the green deal, an analysis by Isabelle Marchais proposing to Making health a European priority, and an external contribution by Jean Mafart, A new internal security strategy for the European Union. Christine Verger asks in a recent blog post: What’s happening in the European Parliament ?. Nicole Gnesotto describes in another article, A world turned upside down, and Guillaume Duval notes that the rise in European rate hikes: a manageable impact for now. Finally, the infographic of the month was produced by Eulalia Rubio and Benjamin Couteau and focuses on a fundamental issue that is too often swept under the carpet: The budgetary costs of enlargement: Setting the basis for a well-informed debate.

Wishing everyone a nice reading!

Sylvie Matelly

Director of the Jacques Delors Institute