A devalued United States, a desire for European defence and consolidated support for Ukraine

INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this document is to take stock of the attitudes and expectations of European Union citizens regarding the prospect of a common European defence, a few months after Donald Trump’s return to power in the United States. It is based mainly on an analysis of the results of the latest Eurobarometer, published by the European Commission (survey conducted in March-April 2025 and published in May[1] ), supplemented by other survey data, which will also be mentioned briefly.

A SHARP DECLINE IN THE IMAGE OF THE UNITED STATES

Since the autumn 2024 Eurobarometer, the image of the United States has deteriorated dramatically. Whereas favourable and unfavourable opinions were previously balanced (at 47% each), the former have fallen to 29% while the latter have jumped to 67%. While the United States is still perceived more positively than Russia (only 14% favourable, compared with 83% unfavourable), it now scores no better than China.

The deterioration is widespread in almost all Member States (with a few exceptions where the situation remains stable) and is particularly marked in some countries traditionally close to the United States (Denmark, -34%; Netherlands, -32%; Portugal, -26%; Belgium, -22%; Germany, -22%; Poland, -19%; Ireland, -18%) as well as in other countries (Finland, -29%; Sweden, -28%; Lithuania, -29%; Spain, -25%; France, Latvia, Croatia, -19%).

The balance of opinion about the USA is negative in all but two countries, Poland (56% favourable vs. 37%) and Romania (65% vs. 31%). In Hungary, opinions are balanced. The gaps remain relatively small in Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Cyprus (less than 10 points). On the other hand, America’s image is now particularly bad in traditionally Atlanticist countries – the Netherlands (12% favourable, 88% unfavourable), Denmark (13% versus 85%), Germany (17% versus 81%), Belgium (22% versus 77%), Luxembourg (19% versus 77%), Ireland (24% versus 73%) – as well as in other member States – Sweden (18% versus 82%), Finland (24% versus 75%), Spain (19% versus 77%) and Slovenia (25% versus 72%).

Another question asked about the general feeling about the direction taken by the United States. In autumn 2024, 28% of respondents felt that things were going in the right direction, compared with 52% in the wrong direction (and 19% neutral) – a slightly lower result than in the EU (36% ‘right direction’, 51% ‘wrong direction’). Six months later, the view of the United States has darkened considerably: only 17% believe that the country is heading in the right direction, compared with 73% in the wrong direction, while the responses for the EU remained virtually unchanged (-1 point).

The most marked declines were in Poland (-21 points), Croatia (-16 points), Spain, Belgium (-15% in these two countries), Germany, Italy (-14%), the Baltic States (between 9% and 14% decline), the three Nordic countries (-11%), Austria and Slovakia (-12%).

BROAD SUPPORT FOR THE IDEA OF A EUROPEAN DEFENCE

81% of EU citizens say they are in favour of a common security and defence policy, compared with 15% who are opposed. This support, which was already very strong, has grown even stronger: + 6 points since spring 2011, + 2 points in the last six months. In all Member States, support is at or above 70%, or close to this proportion in one country (68% in Austria).

The highest levels of support are found in Germany (90%), Luxembourg (89%), the Netherlands (88%), Belgium (85%), the Nordic countries (82% in Sweden, 84% in Denmark, 88% in Finland) and the Baltic States (between 81% and 89%), as well as in Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece, Cyprus and Slovenia (80% or more).

Since autumn 2024, some countries have seen significant increases:+ 17% in Portugal, +15% in Malta, +12% in Sweden, +10% in Denmark and +8% in Ireland. Compared to spring 2011, there have been particularly strong increases in several countries: +27 points in Ireland and Sweden, +24 in Finland, +17 in Denmark, and rises of 10 to 12 points in Portugal, the Netherlands and Germany.

Other studies confirm this trend. In 2024, according to the Bertelsmann Stiftung, 87% of EU citizens said they were in favour of a common European defence. More recently, in March 2025, a survey for Le Grand Continent carried out in nine Member States showed that a large majority (70-80% in six countries – France, Germany, Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands and Denmark) believe that the EU should rely on its own forces rather than on Donald Trump’s United States. In Italy, Poland and Romania, the majorities remain clear, but less strong (57% to 59%).

It should be noted that the disaffection with the United States does not extend to NATO at this stage. 53% of Europeans say they have confidence in NATO (compared with 37%) – a figure down slightly (-3 points), close to that for confidence in the EU (52% compared with 41%).

At the same time, support for the idea of a common foreign policy is slightly lower (75% in favour, 19% opposed). Germans are the most in favour (86%), followed by Cypriots, Dutch, Lithuanians, Spaniards and Portuguese (80% or more). Rates are lower, but still in the majority (60-65%), in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Malta, as well as in France, Sweden and Denmark. There has been a marked increase since autumn 2024 in Sweden (+18%) and Denmark (+13%), as well as in Portugal (+18%), Malta (+16%) and Estonia (+10%).

There is one caveat, however: contrary to the EU trend (62% in favour), Scandinavians remain reticent about the general idea that more decisions should be taken jointly within the EU (only 42% approval in Sweden, 45% in Denmark), as do Finns and Czechs, while Estonians and Irish are very divided.

There is broad support for a number of concrete proposals:

strengthening defence cooperation (82% in favour, +4 points since autumn 2024); no score is lower than 68%.
an increased defence budget in the EU (69%, +5 points), supported in particular by the Nordic countries, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg.
better coordination of military equipment procurement (81%, +2 points);
strengthening the EU’s arms production capacity (73%, +4 points), with particularly high scores (80% or more) in Finland, Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands, Lithuania, Poland and Portugal. In no country does support fall below 55%.

CONSOLIDATED SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE

Perceptions of the Russian threat remain largely unchanged: 77% of Europeans believe that the Russian invasion of Ukraine constitutes a threat to the security of the EU (+ 1 point since the autumn 2024 survey). The highest scores (90% or more) are found in the Nordic countries and Portugal (90% or more), followed by Ireland, the Netherlands, Poland, Lithuania, Germany, Luxembourg and Spain (80% or more). Only Cyprus (52% vs. 44%) and Bulgaria (56% vs. 36%) had levels below 60%.

When asked about the threat to the security of their own country, slightly fewer respondents expressed concern: 73% compared to 24%. The same Member States show the highest levels of concern, while fear is much lower in Bulgaria (50%), Greece (58%) and especially Cyprus (only 30%).

72% of the public support the imposition of economic sanctions against the Russian government, companies and individuals (+1 point). Support remains strong in the Nordic countries, Poland, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Ireland and Portugal. On the other hand, it is more fragile in Hungary and Greece, very divided in Bulgaria and a minority in Cyprus.

The idea of providing financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine is approved by 76% of Europeans (+8 points). Support is strongest in Sweden, Finland and Denmark (over 90%), and in the Netherlands, Ireland and Lithuania (85% or more). Only the Czech Republic remains (by a single point) below 60%.

The reception of people fleeing war is supported by 80% of respondents (a slight drop of 3 points), with high levels of support overall; the Czech Republic is the least favourable (53%).

The most debated proposal, financing the purchase and delivery of arms to Ukraine, received 59% support (+1 point), against 36%. Here again, the Swedes, Finns (90% or more), Danes (86%), Dutch (80%) and Lithuanians (79%) were most in favour, while approval was in the minority in Bulgaria, Greece, Cyprus, Hungary, Slovenia, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. In Italy, opinions are divided; in Spain, Malta and Romania, the majorities in favour are small.

As for the EU’s response to the Russian invasion, 54% of citizens said they were satisfied, compared with 41%. Satisfaction rates are generally highest in countries that are particularly inclined to counter Russia’s actions and lend a helping hand to Ukraine: over 70% in Portugal, Sweden, Denmark, Poland and Romania, and over 65% in Ireland, the Netherlands and Finland. Conversely, satisfaction is low in Greece, Cyprus and Slovenia (around 35%), slightly in the minority in Latvia, and almost balanced in Bulgaria, Hungary, Estonia and Spain. In France, the majority in favour is modest; in Germany and Belgium, it is just over 50%.

A new question in the Spring 2025 Eurobarometer shows that 77% of Europeans want the EU to support Ukraine until a just and lasting peace is established. The most favourable (over 90%) are in the Nordic countries and Portugal, followed by the Netherlands, Spain, Lithuania and Ireland (over 80%). Majorities are lower in the Czech Republic (50%) and Cyprus (49% versus 44%), but remain clear elsewhere.

Lastly, 60% of respondents were in favour of granting Ukraine candidate status. The most favourable are the Swedish and Portuguese (over 80%), followed by the Lithuanians, Finns, Irish, Danes and Spanish. The Czechs (61%) and Hungarians (60%) remain overwhelmingly opposed; opinion is very divided in Bulgaria, Slovenia and Cyprus, and the majority in Greece remains fragile.

CONCLUSION

Since Donald Trump’s return to power, many Europeans, including those in Member States with a reputation for being the most Atlanticist, have turned their backs on the United States and now doubt the guarantees of security it previously provided.

Against this backdrop, the aspiration to build a genuine security and defence policy within the EU is making clear progress.

Aware of the persistent threat posed by Russia, the majority of EU citizens continue to support aid to Ukraine. This support, which had been slowly eroding since 2022, is stabilising and strengthening, despite the still strong reservations in some countries about certain forms of aid.

[1] Standard Eurobarometer 103