A high-stakes start of the season

European news this summer leaves a bitter taste and mixed feelings: are we witnessing the beginning of the end or the start of a revival? The answer remains uncertain, as this revival is long overdue. One thing is certain, however: we must react quickly, very quickly now if we wish for survival.

This is the perspective behind our more recent publications, which draw lessons from a chain of events that illustrates, more starkly than ever, the asymmetry of transatlantic relations. Caught between its commercial interests and the war in Ukraine, Europe has chosen to preserve its relationship with Washington at almost any costs. The trade deal announced on 27 July in Scotland make this plain: a stark concession to an accepted imbalance with enduring and deleterious consequences. In his blogpost After Turnberry…, Pascal Lamy warns of ‘the price of this retreat’: a political cost likely underestimated – one that exposes the EU’s weakness, appears to validate U.S. criticism of European trade surpluses and sits at odds with WTO rules. This agreement will weigh heavily on EU’s credibility, both at home and abroad.

Our work also calls for greater ambition and for the courage to ‘dare to be European’, the only viable path in a brutal and fragmented world. This is not only the conviction of the Jacques Delors Institutes in Paris, Berlin and Brussels: it is also shared by European citizens, as Eurobarometer after Eurobarometer confirms. Daniel Debomy illustrates this clearly in his blogpost A devalued United States, a desire for European defence and consolidated support for Ukraine.

The political landscape, however, is shifting rapidly. As Isabelle Marchais points out in her paper for the Observatoire politique du Parlement européen, One year after the elections, a deeply unstable European Parliament, Despite the June 2024 elections, the new forces in the EU Parliament failed to deliver the expected balance of power. Instead, they ushered in a new political order: priorities are being reshuffled with competitiveness, administrative simplification and the fight against illegal immigration, relegating the green transition to the background. A telling sign of the times.

Phuc-Vinh Nguyen stresses in Les Échos that ‘the challenge is more political than technical’. SSuccess now hinges on leaders’ ability to resist populist siren calls and mobilise all the driving forces. The Green Deal must be more than a regulatory framework. It needs to become a unifying social project.

In July, the Commission unveiled its proposal for the next multiannual financial framework (2028-2034). Our colleagues Eulalia Rubio, Johannes Lindner, Nils Redeker and Romy Hansun describe it as a response to ‘an almost impossible equation’. They identify four guiding principles for the negotiations: targeting investment on shared priorities, preserving flexibility, reforming the CAP and cohesion policy as part of integrated plans, and recognising that far-reaching reform will require more resources. Bertrand de Cordoue adds to this analysis by emphasising the uneasy equation of the future EU defence budget: a debate that will turn not only on the overall envelope (around €25 billion) as on its interplay with national budgets, the balance between R&D, production and joint procurement, and the synergies with the space sector.

Enlargement is also on our agenda. In a policy paper published in July, Benjamin Couteau argues for Strengthening the European Union’s credibility in the Western Balkans. He sets out seven priorities for a unifying European strategic narrative, ranging from security guarantees to the role of civil societies.

Relations with China remain ambivalent: Elvire Fabry and Sacha Courtial point out in their infographic on 50 years of diplomatic relations and the 25th EU-China summit that trade has grown from €2 billion per year to €2 billion per day, without ever achieving a true balance.

Our colleagues in Berlin and Brussels have also been active. At the Jacques Delors Centre in Berlin, Jannik Jansen analyses Europe’s Car Industry in Transition: Stuck in Neutral or Shifting into Gear?. He notes that, while global competitors drive rapid electrification, Europe remains constrained by the absence of a common strategy and the persistent extra cost of electric vehicles. He calls for a coordinated industrial policy to prevent a structural decline in the sector. In Brussels, Giorgio Gallizioli and Paola Ladisa examine the uncertain future of European fisheries in their paper How can the EU best support the future of EU fishers?. They argue for a coherent strategy combining innovation, financial support and strengthened governance to ensure the resilience and attractiveness of the profession.

Finally, on our website, you can find the speech delivered by Stéphane Séjourné, Executive Vice-President of the European Commission for Prosperity and Industrial Strategy, at the Jacques Delors Conference on 20 June at the Banque de France: Single Market: a lever for a competitive, inclusive and sustainable economy. He reminded us that ‘given the current geopolitical and commercial context, Europeans’ primary economic partners must be Europeans themselves’.

Wishing you happy reading and a good start to the new academic year.