Elvire Fabry, senior Research Fellow at the Jacques Delors Institute, contributed to the report published by the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) The European Union in Crisis. What Challenges Lie ahead and Why It Matters for Korea (December 2018)
After months of struggle between the EU 27 and the UK over the terms of a withdrawal agreement, proceeding to an orderly Brexit remains very challenging. By ruling out any cherry-pick between rights and obligations of EU membership, the EU has restrained available options for the future relationship. Yet, British political parties remain very divided on the priorities of Brexit. With no clear majority for any scenario, the process is held hostage to the British political spasms and the probability for a “no deal” or a “remain option” increases.
To assess the impact of Brexit on the UK, the EU and trade relations with third countries, this paper starts by analysing the state of play of negotiations at the end of 2018 and remaining post-Brexit scenarios.
It then scrutinises the stumbling blocks on the road to an autonomous UK trade strategy, notably the possibility for the UK to negotiate a transition for EU FTAs.
And finally, it focuses on the impact of Brexit on South Korea’s trade relations with the EU and the UK: a case study which provides with a useful reference for the prospect of a “Global Britain”, as South Korea is the kind of export led economy cherished by Brexiters and can be considered as a peer trading partner.