Other document
EU enlargement and the post-2027 Multi-Annual Financial Framework
BRIEFING Requested by the BUDG committee
The entry of new members into the Union poses different challenges it they take place at the start, in the midde or the end of an MFF. If the accession treaty is ratified well before a new MFF begins, the extra costs can be included in the next MFF. If ratification happens in the middle, the MFF must be adjusted to account for the extra expenditure. When a small country joins in the final year of an MFF (e.g., Croatia), budget margins may suffice to cover the enlargement-related costs but this is not possible if there is a legal requirement to amend the MFF. Current estimates suggest that the cost of integrating all potential candidates, excluding Turkey, would be manageable, ranging from €15.7 billion to €26 billion per year. This range reflects different assumptions and methodological choices. At its maximum, this cost represents 0.2% of the EU’s GDP and could be easily covered within the existing margin of the Own Resources ceiling. Support to the Western Balkans has risen by 40% with the Facility’s adoption. Maintaining this level in the next MFF and extending similar support to Moldova and Georgia is advisable. Strict policy conditionality should apply to funds for central governments but be relaxed for civil society and some EU-priority projects, like transnational infrastructure. Ukraine will continue to need significant support; assuming a peace agreement by 2028, it will require less short-term macroeconomic aid and more support to post-war reconstruction. The Ukraine Facility’s Pillars 1 and 3 could be merged to fund central government reforms, while Pillar 2, aimed at de-risking private investment, should see increased funding. The entry of Ukraine in the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) poses significant challenges. Although accession may not be imminent, the EU should begin planning for this eventuality. A choice has to be made between significantly increasing the CAP budget, reducing all national allocations or granting less funding per hectare to Ukraine. Temporary phase-in periods may ease adjustments but they do not resolve the long-term issue. It is preferable to avoid including a clause in the MFF regulation that mandates a revision for any enlargement. If the prospect of large countries acceding becomes more realistic, it may be wise to consider approving a 5-year MFF or establishing specific ‘accession-related’ reserves beyond the MFF to cover the costs of accession.
SUR LE MÊME THÈME
ON THE SAME THEME
PUBLICATIONS
Adapting the EU budget to make it fit for the purpose of future enlargements

North Macedonia’s EU path: Challenges and opportunities in 2025

THE EUROPEAN POLITICAL COMMUNITY

MÉDIAS
MEDIAS
FRANCE : L’UNION DES INDUSTRIES UTILISATRICES D’ÉNERGIE (UNIDEN) APPELLE AU RATIONNEMENT

Peut-on parvenir à une souveraineté économique européenne?

Le nouveau «plan de résilience» teste la solidarité européenne

ÉVÉNEMENTS
EVENTS
Legitimacy Crisis and Autocratic Legalism: The case of the EU Budget

Euroquestions | European Recovery : from planning to implementation

Euroquestion | Quelle gestion de l’endettement public à la suite du Covid ?

Euroquestions | The ongoing negotiations on the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) and the European Recovery Plan: the state of play [Traduction simultanée vers le français disponible]

Wébinaire | Le Parlement européen, acteur de la réponse à la crise du Covid-19

Day of Progressive Economic Policy

Webinar | The day after the Eurogroup Meeting : outcomes & opportunities

Académie Notre Europe n°5 – Social Europe and Budget

EU Budget 2021-27 : Challenges and opportunities

Florence, 17 October 2019 – The MFF and EU Policie 2021-2027

Brussels, 16th October 2019 – Three solutions to finance the Green Deal

Brussels, 21 May 2019 – Europe after Sibiu: towards differentiated integration?

Dijon, 17 May 2019 – The European project against populism and the illiberal temptation

Paris, 12 April 2019 – Session no.6 of the Académie Notre Europe: economic and monetary Union

Brussels, 22 February 2019 – Post-Brexit EU budget: will it meet the challenge of the 21st century?

11 octobre 2018 – La montée des banques promotionnelles en Europe contemporaine: potentiels et pièges

Brussels, 9 October 2018 – What can NPBIs bring to the table for territorial investment?

Strasbourg, 3 October 2018 – Presentation of the report “Making better use of public funding: The role of NPBIs in the next EU budget”

Paris, 18 September 2018 – Towards a Juncker Plan closer to the territories?

Paris, 12 June 2018 – Hearing by the Special Rapporteur on Budget for European affairs of the French National Assembly

Paris, 6 June 2018 – What territorial cohesion to build in Europe?

Brussels, 6 June 2018 – Cohesion Policy and the new MFF

Paris, 28 May 2018 – Budget meetings: the new EU financial framework

Budapest, 24 May 2018 – The Money Trail to Europe’s Future: the Multi-Annual Financial Framework and the EU’s priorities post-2020

Nicosia, 16 March 2018 – The political landscape of EMU reform

Sofia, 9 March 2018 – The future of the EU budget

Brussels, 22 November 2017 – The future of the European budget

Brussels, 25 September 2017 – Conference on the Future of EU Finances

Paris, 21 July 2017 – The future of the Eurozone and the Multiannual Financial Framework
