Europe in the French Presidential Elections: Side Show, Fall Guy or Just Conspicuous by its Absence?

The resounding “no” the French returned to the referendum on the Constitutional Treaty for Europe in May 2005 was a bolt out of the blue for France and Europe. The Dutch rejection, a few days later, came to confirm that there was trouble ahead the European construction. To be sure, some countries – among which, by referendum, Luxembourg – have honoured their commitments and kept to the constitution ratification process. But a fair number of States chose to suspend the procedure, fuelling uncertainty as to the fate of the text. No wonder then that the “pause for thought” decided by the Heads of State and Government in June 2005 gradually turned into a kind of European paralysis, at best a wait and see – without the seeing.

Fresh hope is however taking hold with Germany at the helm of the Presidency of the Council of the European Union. The “roadmap” The European Council should adopt at its June Summit amounts to a commitment by the Member States to find a solution to the crisis and to implement the required measures before the 2009 European elections. But the European context is, to some extent, hostage to a French electoral calendar hardly favourable to progress. France is to elect a new President of the Republic by a two rounds voting system taking place respectively on 22 April and 6 May 2007. His or her election will be closely followed by Parliamentary elections (on 10 and 17 June).