Halfway through the Commission’s mandate, Ursula von der Leyen’s 2026 State of the Union address will be a key moment to take stock of the past year and set priorities for the coming months. At a time when Europe is still facing war in Ukraine, intensifying geopolitical and trade tensions, and decisive choices on its budget, competitiveness and borders, this speech will provide an opportunity to assess the level of ambition the European Commission intends to pursue for the remainder of its mandate.

2026 will come to an end without Orbán in power. But what will 2027 have in store? Our Union still appears as contested and polarised as ever, with tensions between Member States, divisions within the European Parliament, and criticism from economic actors and citizens alike. As the next European electoral milestones could reshape the continent’s political balance, one question arises: will Ursula von der Leyen seek to deepen European integration, or will she struggle to maintain a common course among the Member States? How much political room for manoeuvre can she still create?

Beyond the announcements themselves, the speech will above all offer a glimpse into the political choices that will shape the Commission’s action in the months ahead: which priorities will be brought to the forefront? And, more broadly, what does the speech tell us about the direction the European Union intends to take?

Arnaud Magnier has been Director of the Jacques Delors Institute since 1 September 2026. He has more than twenty years of experience in European affairs and public policy, working within French institutions as well as the private sector. He has held several positions, including Director of Institutional Relations and Special Adviser to the Secretary General of the General Secretariat for European Affairs (SGAE), and has worked alongside several Ministers for European Affairs. More recently, he served as an adviser to the President of the Economic, Social and Environmental Council (CESE), where he was notably responsible for European and international affairs and citizen participation.