Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and the subsequent decision to grant candidate status to Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia has put enlargement back on top of the EU’s agenda and has risen the number of candidates and potential candidates to ten.

Despite huge uncertainty, all seems to indicate that most candidates will not be ready to join the Union during the next MFF, with the possible exception of one or two Balkan countries. In this context, the next MFF will be crucial for supporting candidate countries’ efforts towards accession. It is also recommendable to start reflections on how to adjust the EU’s major spending policies to future accession and preparing the next MFF negotiations by keeping in mind the eventuality of different enlargement scenarios. Regardless of Ukraine’s accession timeline, financial support for Ukraine is likely to remain a major budget item in the next MFF. Assuming that a sustainable peace agreement is reached by 2027, the focus will shift from short-term macroeconomic aid to long-term support for post-war reconstruction.