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Parmentier, F. “Romania and Moldova in 2025: Navigating Political Change”, Brief, Jacques Delors Institute, March 2025

In the South-West of Ukraine, the strategic, political and economic effects of the war are having a profound effect on the two Romanian-speaking states of Romania and Moldova. Behind this geographical, historical and cultural proximity, the two neighbouring countries are nevertheless distinguished by their distinct political trajectories following the collapse of the USSR (1991): Romania, anchored in the European Union and NATO, recently took a further step forward with its entry into the Schengen area on 1st January 2025, thus consolidating its Euro-Atlantic integration. In contrast, Moldova, which has been an official candidate for European enlargement since June 2022, remains constitutionally neutral in military terms and faces specific challenges linked to its geopolitical positioning.

The year 2025 promises to be a decisive turning point for these two nation states. Internally, crucial elections – presidential in Romania and parliamentary in Moldova – could redefine the political balance and national priorities. At regional level, developments in the war in Ukraine and the effects of the Trump presidency are clearly continuing to reshape European geopolitics, exacerbating the political and security stakes for these two countries.

What impact will an uncertain future for Ukraine have on Romania and Moldova in 2025?