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Vimont, P. “Europe and Ukraine: regaining the initiative”, Policy Paper N°309, Jacques Delors Institute, January 2025

2025 could be a pivotal year in the Ukraine conflict. It will force European leaders to make choices. If, as it has repeatedly stated, the European Union intends to play a role in resolving the Ukrainian crisis, it must rely solely on itself to change the current course of events. It is up to Europeans to know what they want, and at the moment it is not clear that they do.

European leaders have extenuating circumstances. The return of war to Europe has upset the very nature of the European project, conceived as the construction of a great economic and political entity in a peaceful environment free from any recourse to force. Russian aggression has changed the situation, and the European institutions are ill-equipped to deal with it. After reacting effectively to the first armed confrontations in February 2022 by providing unstinting assistance to Ukraine, Europe’s commitment has slowly waned. It remains significant, particularly in financial terms, but it has become discouraged. With the passage of time and a conflict that is becoming bogged down, Europe seems to have lost its compass; it is looking for a perspective while struggling to set a goal for the coming months.